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We also got long subprime lenders.
And we got to know them well.
And early on it was clear that this was going to be a booming opportunity for subprime
lenders.
I mean, you were taking debt that was costing folks
very high rates on credit cards and pulling equity out of homes.
And so that was a natural arbitrage that created this big opportunity.
And then using subprime to fund the purchase of second homes, driving up real estate
prices.
And I was actually at a breakfast with a company coming public that I ended up investing in
where I asked them a number of questions about how these loans
work.
And it became very clear that the whole key to those loans
was home price appreciation.
And at that breakfast, I kind of logged this view, that, wow, when this turns, it's
going to be a very significant credit event.
Let me, if I may just interrupt to observe, how unusual it is for someone who has been
long, a big theme, to turn around and successfully to change views and become short, successfully,
that same theme.
It's done sometimes at a bar in recounting fabulous fabled stories, but rarely in real
life.
Tell me about kind of the intellectual flexibility this requires.
When did you decide to kind of jettison the bullish view on subprime?
Well, it was a matter of first developing understanding of what was going on and how
this reflexive process, classic Soros reflexive process was interacting
with the real world.
And it was very simple.
Easy credit drive up home prices.
The fact that home prices was growing up was making credit easier.
And so it was a matter of how long that would play out and when it would
end.
We had the patience to wait.
And we made some money in long side of some of the subprime lenders
during this period.
And it was really gaining the knowledge of what
these CDO and CDS securities were that was an eye-opening opportunity for me.
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