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Turning Points and Timing | Felix Zulauf Outtake | Real Vision Video - Duration: 9:46.

Felix Zulauf is one of the true legends of the investment industry and a man I've been

waiting to meet in person for almost a decade.

Over the course of a day in Naples Florida, I was treated to a fascinating look inside

the mind of a man whose made bold calls and demonstrated an uncanny knack of identifying

big turning points in markets and then capitalizing on them.

Not all of what we talked about made it into the final cut of our conversation but that

certainly doesn't mean that what was left out is any less valuable, here's a little

look at what was a truly wonderful conversation.

Market timers tend to be early by 6 months to a year, sometimes more, particularly in

this cycle because as we've talked about, it's been elongated.

But '87 you were early by a matter of days, Japan you were early by almost a matter of

hours and the Telco, dotcom you were right there in 2000.

In terms of spotting turning points coming, but watching for that moment at which to actually

do something about it, are there any particular signs that you look for that make you say

"OK".

What was it about January 2000 and what was it about September 87, and what was it about

the beginning of 1990 in Japan?

Because there's something going on here that's remarkably close to those turning points.

Well, first of all, it's the fundamental framework when the monetary liquidity situation begins

to tighten you know you are close to a turning point.

And then its a timing question, then you go to your timing tools, that's technical analysis.

So then you do your trend analysis, and you measure the trends.

Will the trends begin to mature, and lose power?

And you work closer to that point where it turns.

You can still make mistakes but that's how I work, the trend and momentum.

You know valuation is crazy at that point.

You see the monetary situation is detereorating, then you go to your technical tools, and trend

and momentum is what I use and then somehow the days before something crazy happens I

always had sort of a gut feeling.

It was always like I had some electricity vibrating in my stomach, you know, and I always...

my wife could confirm that I always told, in all those instances, I told my wife "something

is going to happen.

I can feel it, something is going to happen."

We are getting close, so when you live with the markets and when it means a lot to you,

what you do as a profession, as a job, and analyzing the world and markets then it just

feeds back to you.

And you feel it.

I find this really interesting.

I spoke to Richard Pomboy, Stephanie Pomboy, and Eric Pomboy's father, and he had a similar

experience in '87.

He went to 100% cash the day before it happened, and he said, it was just a gut feeling, that

I knew something was building and something was going on that didn't feel right and for

whatever reason that morning I just came in and I said "there's a crash going to happen."

And he went to 100% cash.

So soon before it happened, that he hadn't had time to tell his investors, so they were

ringing up on the morning of October 19th, 1987 saying "oh my god we're ruined."

And he said, "Well I'm sorry, I didn't have time to tell you but we're 100% in cash, don't

worry."

I think that was a Monday, October 19th, and I was actually out, I was delivering a speech

in Southern Germany.

There was a reunion of a big company with their clients and I delivered a speech before

dinner, pre-dinner speech, and I think I opened the speech by saying "This is a speech you

will never forget, not because of what I tell you but because of what's going to happen

tonight."

And you saw the opening already, you saw the closing on Friday and we didn't have smartphones

at that time but we had those little Reuters machines, the pocket pager things, and I saw

the opening with the delay, I saw the opening, so I said, this is a dinner speech you will

never forget, not because of me but because of what will happen tonight.

And the other morning at breakfast, they all showed up at breakfast, everybody was pale.

White-faced yeah!

It was an interesting experience.

Yeah, it's interesting because when you describe these turning points, the reduction of liquidity,

the trends the momentum the technical analysis, we're there now it feels like to me.We can

see the liquidity in many ways, certainly from the Federal Reserve, it's starting to

be reigned in, even though on a global basis, which I guess is maybe the difference now,

it still feels like it's expanding.

It's very interesting you say that because on January 24th this year I held a webinar

for our clients together with Ed Heiman for his clients and it was just a fireside chat

about what we see going on and what's coming and in that webinar, I said "it feels to me

like '87.

It feels to me like '87, something is in the air."

We have liquidity getting tighter, we have extended markets and something could happen

very short-term.

You have the finance, the secretary of the treasury talking down the dollar just like

then, you have bond yields going up, you have stocks going up and losing momentum, something

is in the air.

And a few days later things started.

So yeah, when you look at that now, but we do have this... the world seems much more

globally connected now than it was back in '87.

Even though it was a global crash, it was a bunch of isolated crashes happening in tandem,

now it feels as though, since the end of QE3 there's an extra 5 trillion dollars of stimulus

that's been applied by the Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China etc and the Swiss National

Bank who are at it like crazy.

When you have that feeling like you had at the end of January, do you feel as though,

the ultimate outcome of that feeling is going to be dissipated now?

Because the money can be injected into the system from anywhere.

I think we are... it's more synchronized today but we are not quite there in the liquidity

tightening cycle where we were in '87.

We are not quite there.

It's not as extreme yet, there is still plenty of liquidity around so I think this was a

warning, a little warning crack.

Market's have rallied after that crack, the NASDAQ and those disruptors are making new

highs but just a few names, the majority of the NASDAQ 100 stocks is not making new highs

so that shows you deteriorating rates.

I think there is going to be a second decline coming into this Spring or so, I do not know

exactly when but I think the downside is bigger, clearly bigger than the upside.

And once that is over I think markets are going to try the upside once again but I do

not know for how long because when you look at the monetary situation, the FED will tighten

and will soak up liquidity, the ECB will stop its QE in September, that's a big change,

I think the Chinese are trying to restructure the financial sector which is slowing down

the credit aggregates so I think they are also tightening.

They have raised interest rates quite a lot of over the last 2 years, so I think there

is some tightening going on in the global arena, but it's smoother, it's gentler it

is spread out because nobody wants to rock the boat.

So until we see some deterioration somewhere in the world economy or the financial system

the strong stocks will try to rally again, and the strong stocks and the strong segments

of the global markets will make new highs.

I doubt that the weak ones will, Europe, for instance, is by far the weakest region, they

will not make new highs I really doubt.

So I think 2019 is probably the situation or the window when liquidity is really tight

and when the fiscal stimulus is slowly abating and then I think we are ready for the big

downturn.

I think peeking out, sometime in the second half of this year and then down into 2020.

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The Most Important Thing not Every Video Game NEEDS - Duration: 36:22.

yes, another type of video idea that i'm stealing.

Let's see if I enjoy this

i'm going to be looking at a video by the act man

he does fun and informative videos on games.

sadly he also has this one idea that i can't agree on.

and i get pretty tired of youtubers making this claim.

so lets take a look

oh, good question.

what does every game need.

there are many things that i enjoy in games,

but if i have to think of something that Every game need I would have to go with something vague

and say: every game should give you something.

Generally joy

but it can be a lot of other things too.

Yeah

lets hope your idea doesn't fall into that same category.

well he was making some pretty good arguments.

what people need in their video games is very subjective.

i tried to go with something that anyone can agree on

and it lead to me having a vague statement.

So

lets see what you have to say.

oh boy,

i see where this is going.

if no one else brought it up

it should raise some alarm bells

that it might not be that important to most people

yes

YES

oh boy, this again.

oh no,

we have another person talking about the satisfaction of overcomming a challange

you know, that satisfaction i never get

yet i'm still a gamer,

which kind of destroys the entire point.

interesting that you go with sports so heavily.

many people don't do sports

Most people never compete for anything meaningful

yet it is the best comparisons to all games?

this thing that most people don't try is what all gamers are?

But let's hear you out, maybe you can convince me

(that i'm making this video is a pretty good sign that you won't)

actually not everybody does.

i have nothing to show for my playtroughs of skyrim.

This I have some stories and a couple corrupted saves

Now you can probably say this it's something that many people want

But the "every" in the title of most important thing every video game needs

Says that this is what it's like for everyone

One person is agreeing might be insignificant

but it disproves your claim.

ever heard of bartle's taxonomy?

extra credits did a pretty good video about it 3 years ago,

Links in the description

It says that there are four types of players

the achiever the Explorer the socializer and the killer

i can not do four fingers like this with these gloves on

now you can probably tell, it's

Achievements are perfect for achievers

It's kind of in the name

They love goals like this

They love goals that I've set in achievements

So of course every store has achievements

They add enjoyment to tons of plates

to basically all achievers

but

explorers, sosiolizers and killers don't care nearly as much about achivements.

That's three out of four groups

and no one is going to argue that you should.

or at least no one you should care about

i sadly can't enjoy any old graphics,

i could not get into oblivion as it was too old.

annoying

but there are plenty of people that can enjoy a game without a good challenge.

There's a whole genre

Around no challenge: the walking simulator. a group of games. We you know real gameplay challenge

and i deliberately say no gameplay challenge,

I'll get back to that

what is the difference between a game that provides no challange the second time

but has something else that makes up for that with something else.

and a game that provides no challange the first time

but makes up for that with something else?

of course a game has to have something good,

and a good challange can be that something.

but there are many more somethings that a game can have.

not just challenge

you said it here yourself, a good story can make up for a lack of a challenge.

the selling point isn't the challenge, but the story.

so why does the selling point of every game have to be a challenge?

Well, yeah

what's wrong with that?

if it fakes challenge,

but you get the same adrenaline rush that you get for a real difficult challenge

What's the complaint?

You want the experience of beating a challenge right?

So

So what if it's fake if it gives the experience that player wants, it's still giving them what they want

of course it's bad when you look trough it,

but

then it just not done well enough for it to work on you.

That doesn't mean it's inherently bad. It's just badly done

alright

that sucks, but

but the game isn't designed just for the people that do every quest.

The game wasn't balanced before your playstyle

that doesn't make it bad.

it just means that ether you have to change your playstyle or that it's simply not for you.

well, these are find anecdotes on why games need challenge for you

but it isn't a reason why every game needs it for everyone.

you see that's actually impossible.

you can't balance it just right.

what some people will find too easy others will find too hard.

you can aim in the middle for largest appeal.

But some people will find it too hard and some people find it too easy

Or you can make it harder, and then less people will find it too easy

but you'll have more people who find it too hard,

and the people that like it will say that they just have to gid gud.

Or you can make it easier so almost everyone can play it, but many people will say that it's too simple

there games generally have something else that makes them good.

ah, darling ol darksouls.

the game truly about player skill.

the game where every battle is hard

And if you accomplish after every fight

unless you are me. then you'll get nothing from beating a boss.

i beat at least half the bosses in dark souls 3

then i realised i was bored

and i never played it again.

not because i couldn't beat the challenges, but because they were no fun for me.

oh boy, replayablity.

something people love to say they want,

without knowing what they want which will want to make then replay the game.

lets see if mr act does know what he wants.

People want to know who this again. They don't need to build the game around playing it again.

most games that i play again aren't build around giving me a different experiance the second time around.

sometimes they have multiple paths to take,

or multiple ways to do things.

but that's equally nice for a second playtrough as it gives you options on what to do the first time.

And often it's just because I want to experience the same thing again.

i don't replay the same game for a different experience, generally.

are you really saying that every game needs to spend resources to add an expert mode?

that's insane to ask.

Games on rarely designed to be played over and over and over again

espesially story driven games.

they are designed to be played once, just like a book is written to be read once.

not everything needs to be designed for multiple reads or playtroughs.

some games are great to replay.

i have played trough skyrim a lot of times,

just to play new playstyles and make the story for new characters.

but if they focus too hard on later playtroughs the first one will suffer, and that's not something we should encourage.

oh god

"the way it's meant to be played"

unless it's an online game there is no reason to have "THE way it's meant to be played".

what if from software said that the base is the way it's meant to be played

New game+ is just a bad addition

would you stop playing new game +?

or would you say that game mode brings you joy so it's the way you'll play the game?

of course as a big modder i don't really believe in "the way it's meant to be played",

and since bethesda heavily encourages modded it seems like they don't ether.

really, "THE way it's meant to be played" can only hurt your experiance.

ether it's the way you were going to play anyway,

or it forces you to play a way you aren't comfortable with.

What's the upside

and now we moved from saying that a challenge is important

to ridiculing people that don't like challenge.

now I'm not personally attacked by this

i always play skyrim with mods that make it harder. i play doom on the hardest diffeculty i beat dust an elysian tail on the hardest difficulty

i enjoy a though challenge from time to time.

but does that mean i should bash people that don't?

of course not!

i did an entire video talking about just because you like something not everybody likes that something

and can you make the argument that it's odd that game journalists aren't the best gamers.

well, yes.

and no.

here's what a game journalist has to be good at:

Journalism

they need to be able to report on news in the gaming world.

They need to understand games

It's like saying that a gaming youtuber has to be amazing at games. No, that's not their job their job is to entertain

Not to be amazing at the game

Being amazing at the game is the job of pro gamers or speedrunners

as a gaming based youtuber yourself i would think you'd understand that.

ah cool he is finally going to talk about people that enjoy games like what remains of edith finch or firewatch.

people that got more out of a machine for pigs then the dark desent.

people that just enjoy the relaxing nature of yonder the cloud catcher chronicels.

games with no real gameplay challenge.

alright then. talk

You were talking about hackers

not people that enjoy games with no real challenge.

i don't even know what hackers have to do with this conversation.

This is because they remove challenge

If you talk about

if you talk about that why not talk about games where the challenge is removed?

This video was me in December of 2017 walking simulators where already a thing.

so if they are still after that feeling of acomplisment after beating a challange

they just lover the difficulty for themselves

why did you bring them up as if they where against the challenge?

why do you not talk at all about the games that don't have a challenge yet are popular?

this avoiding that topic completely makes it look like you ether don't know they exist,

which i find extremely unlikely as they have been talked about a lot a couple years ago,

or that you know they exist,

but they don't fit into your idea (your narrative) so you leave them out, which would be incredibly shady

Which one is it?

yeaaaaaaaaa, no

like i said before there are plenty of games that don't have this challenge

games like what remains of edith finch don't have any gameplay challenge.

of course they generally have a stronger negative challenges.

they generally challenge you more on an intellectual level.

but that not what mr act here talks about.

like i explained in previous videos: i don't get anything about having beaten a challenge.

I get something out of being in the process of beating a challenged sometimes

but not having beaten a challenge

so these very tough challenges don't do jack for me.

This is why games like Dark Souls don't work for me. The challenge is to graet

Not so great a beat. I can beat those challenges just fine

But too great to beat and at the same time enjoy myself

Let's go back to that original request

what is your idea before his video of what every game needs

and has that changed while watching

my answer was "every game should give you something."

and no, this hasn't changed.

some games give you a sense of accomplishment after beating a challenge,

like darksouls or pvp games.

some games give you a laugh,

like portal or dust.

some games give you an existential crisis,

like what remains of edith finch or valley.

Yes, many games use challenge to engage,

for some that challenge is all they have to offer.

for others is merely a start to build everything else on.

but there are many games which don't use a challenge,

and rely more on story telling or something to engage.

One is not objectively better than the other

that is why not every game requires difficulty

but every game has to give you something.

It's a vinx saying farewell