- [Announcer] So without further ado, I'm gonna hand you
over to Michael Heiss who is gonna
give us our first presentation.
- Thanks Walt, good morning everybody I'm Mike Heiss
the guy with the jacket, but as an added attraction
I now have the color bar socks, okay.
So you gotta play the part,
so thank you and welcome ISE 2018.
What we're gonna do this morning is do a quick talk
on where video will be in 2020,
who is this guy?
Other than being the clown with the jacket,
I run my own consulting firm in LA, I'm also a journalist
you could read my articles in HiddenWires and TWICE
and Residential Systems I've been doing this way,
way, way too many years.
I used to work at NBC in New York, Rank Video
which at the time was, now how's this for a bit
of technology at the time we were the world's
largest video cassette duplicator.
Imagine 15,000 VCRs in one room making copies.
Times have a bit changed, and I worked at Harman
for many years and developed a lot of products
that you've seen, I even if you were in a hotel
and there were movies you can blame that on me.
I was involved with the creation of the first
in-room hotel movies and here's my contact data
down at the bottom.
So they've asked me to do a little talk about video 2020
where are we going to be going forward?
What forms are video going to take?
Where's it going to come from?
Once it's made, how's it going to get to the home?
How will it be accessed?
How will video get around the home?
And what will be used to view?
So what you gonna see is some of the things
will have green type instead of black type
and that's meant to indicate something
that is changing, because the more things change
the more they remain the same so you have to
both change and remain the same at the same time.
So let's get out the crystal ball,
I've just had the crystal ball updated it's running
the latest software so let's see where we're gonna go.
What forms will video take?
In the old days it was, depending on how old,
it was an antenna you connect a coat hanger
or a piece of wire or an aerial to the back of the TV set
you put it up on the roof and the wonders of technology
you'd get video, that's significantly changed.
I was kidding that when I was in the video cassette business
that was the primary means
of distribution for prerecorded content.
Those days are long gone, we've got now
a variety of ways of getting content delivered
but it's important to differentiate between
linear content, recorded content,
and live content because there's somewhat of
a difference in how that's gonna be distributed.
There's more, and again here's a lot of that are
changing here, you have more binge-centric content.
And I realize that we're not in the content creation
or distribution business but by virtue of the fact that
CEDIA members and the people in this hall are the ones
that provision the ways that content is captured
and displayed and listened to,
you are part of the content world.
So there's a lot of binge-centric, if your client
is into I don't know,
Game of Thrones, the woman who stars in Game of Thrones
used to live down the street for me,
I don't know what her name is but I used to call her
Game of Thrones lady, that's binge-centric
so that's the kind of thing where people just sit
in a room for a weekend and watch the whole breadth
of a program, that's something that is more amenable
to a theater environment than just you know
watching the news or watching the sports
or watching football it's app based.
So how are you going to get it?
You're gonna do it on a phone or a tablet
or some wireless device, and that's influencing
the way that you provision video in the home.
Another thing that's increasingly happening,
is social parallel content and what I mean by that,
is the super bowl, or the stupid bowl, you know like
was there some big football US thing last week?
I don't know but there is a trend towards a concurrency
where on one screen something like this,
you're gonna watch the content at the same time,
you're gonna be there doing this on your phone
or your tablet and then it's even gonna go one step
further where people such as YouTube and Facebook
and Amazon are actually bidding for sports rights.
So will Premier League not be on a national
broadcast network but at one point will Premier League
or whatever your sport of choice is be covered
only on streaming and then while you're watching it,
short attention span theater while you're watching it,
you're commenting on another device.
That in turn not only puts pressure on the display
infrastructure but it means you need more Wi-Fi
or more connectivity because there is a lot going on
at the same time, there's gonna be a lot of VR, AR,
and mixed reality, I'm a little at odds
with some of the other folks in the orbit here.
I'm not a big fan of VR that doesn't mean it's gonna
happen or not happen, I'm a very big fan of AR,
augmented reality where you're not wearing
one of those goggles but you're perhaps wearing
glasses or your looking out at a projected
image that is superimposed on reality.
And that is sort of for the moment standing
a bit behind all the publicity about VR
but AR in many people's mind particularly Apple,
if anyone is into AR and you want to see what it's like,
if you have an iPhone go to the Apple Store
and look for ARnold, A R n o l d, a Movie
or if you check ARnold and the AR's artificial reality
and it's something that was created by a bunch
of grad students at USC, University of Southern California
and it's a story where because it's showing the room
that your in it's not locked in like a goggles.
But you can, it's the story of a young boy
and his dog who wants to escape so you can watch it
from a storyteller's perspective,
from the perspective of the dog, from the perspective
of the little boy or from the perspective of the mother
whose waving his finger at him keep the dog
off the furniture because it's artificial reality
and it measures where the furniture is in the room
the dog can jump on the couch, you can't do that with VR.
So that's why AR is big and not everything will be 4K
and HDR, it's gonna be a mix.
There's a big movement afoot starting in the US
but I think it will see it in the rest of the world,
not just to do HDR, high dynamic range content with 4K
that's the way everybody associates it,
but also to do it with standard hi-def.
Because the benefit is not just the resolution,
the benefit is a dramatically improved color,
so you'll begin to see some HDR with standard HD content
and then on the other hand god help us
there's 8K we'll get to that a little later.
Where's the content gonna come from?
It's still gonna come from OTA Over the Air,
when in doubt hook up an antenna and you can watch
a programming it doesn't matter where you are,
North America, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia,
wherever, there still are gonna be antennas.
There still are gonna be content that you're gonna
wanna watch Over the Air and in fact there will be
some content until some of the dynamics in the marketplace
change that you will still only be able to get
Over the Air primarily and then streaming secondarily.
On the other hand, there will be more app-based
and streaming content if you want to watch
Game of Thrones you can't watch it
over the public Over the Air market,
you either have to subscribe to cable
and get in the US HBO or you have to subscribe to HBO
and stream it, how people access content that
they want to see in turn impacts the systems
that you're gonna design and install.
If you know that somebody's a binge watcher
not only do you want to provide a nice environment for them
to sit in because they're gonna be sitting there
for awhile but you have to make certain that there's
sufficient bandwidth and sufficient type correct
type of devices to access the content.
And there will be both, in the app-based world,
there will be both single-channel
and what we call aggregated services.
So that further complicates the issue of how
this is gonna be controlled, ESPN which is the big
sports network in the US you can get that,
through an ESPN app you pay 4.95 a month
and you get all of the ESPN content, well the sports stuff.
But if you want an aggregated content service
and again in the US it's something like,
Swing, or DIRECTV NOW, or Hulu there you're paying
more, I have DIRECTV NOW I pay $35 a month.
But I get a variety of aggregated services,
so you have to ask the people that your working with
as clients what type of content do they like to watch
what the services, by ways it's gonna be delivered
and then form your plan for equipment and displays
and capture and storage accordingly.
And finally as we mentioned above you're gonna see more
socialization, you're gonna see people watching something
and Tweeting about it at the same time.
You're gonna see more UCG which stands
for User Generated Content, YouTube a friend of my son
used to do some production she now makes hundreds
of thousands of dollars a year as an agent
for teenagers who have content on YouTube
which in turn some of those teenagers make
literally millions of dollars.
Just by ginning up content and putting it on YouTube.
So it's becoming more and more important
that when your bidding a project
that you have to work with the clients to say
what is it that you watch?
So that you can make certain to deliver it
sometimes you may not be able to access it.
You have to make sure that they can.
So how's all this stuff gonna get to the home?
Walt we didn't move the, we didn't move the outlines,
so there are a number of ways that content
can come into the house and I apologize for the green boxes
but we'll fix that, you can access it by satellite.
Around the world satellite is very
important content delivery system however there
are forces afoot in the economic world
that are saying if your Sky in the UK or if you're DIRECTV
in the US we don't need no damn satellites anymore,
not today but over the next five years,
going out even a little bit beyond 2020 there is a line
of thought that says satellite is gonna go away
and be replaced by streaming, there's always gonna be
Over the Air, pretend that this is down here.
There's always gonna be Over the Air for a variety
of reasons some of it's economic, some of it has
to do with the economics of the people that may not
be able to afford one of these other things,
and it's also something for if all else fails,
there's still TV.
There's cable modems, content delivered by cable,
you plug the thing into the wall and you get content.
Let's move over here, 4G when I was flying over
from Los Angeles on Sunday it was the bloody super bowl
and there were people waiting in the gate area
watching the stupid football game on their phones.
I didn't care enough so I didn't do it,
how is that delivered?
It was either delivered directly to their phones
via 4G or via Wi-Fi so 4G is here and it's gonna remain.
But the things that are up and coming,
this dotted line is here should be moved down to show
that fiber is increasing because fiber is the ultimate
way to get really really, really really, really really
fast really fast and a lot of it.
So fiber is one way and this should be down here, 5G
we're starting some 5G tests in the US
and in other places in the world this year.
And 5G says the speed of fiber, but through something
that connects to a phone or something that connects
directly to a smart TV so 2020 and onward from there,
that lower right hand corner 5G that's gonna be
a big part of it.
So now you've got, you've determined what it is,
you've determined how it's gonna get there, now what?
It's in the home but you still have to get it around
to the various devices how are you gonna do that?
Analog what in the Sam hell is analog?
There's no more analog, HDMI is kind of the default,
HDMI is the lowest common denominator,
everything still has and still will have HDMI.
There are gonna be other ways to do it,
you look one screen to the right and you see Display Port.
Great if you have a consumer monitor, great if your
doing the kind of enterprise type things
or retail type things that are here on the floor at ISE.
Display Port for the home, sorry I could be wrong,
I've been wrong once or twice before but not this time
I don't think so.
Let's move back over here, USB Type-C, thank goodness
there's finally a USB connector that you don't have
to worry about whether or not it's the right side up
or the right side down, USB-C is also an here it's
tied in with the much faster speed up to 10 gigs USB.
That means that over Type-C they have what's called alt mode
so you're gonna hook the USB Type-C cable into a device
and then connect it to the display and even though it
looks like it's USB the alt part of it means
inside that USB cable could be HDMI, it could
be Display Port, it could be Thunderpants
or Thunderbolt as I like to call it Thunderpants.
My Dell laptop has a Thunderbolt port but I use that
to get everything from HDMI to Display Port
to even VGA so this actually and it's in a green box
it means it's coming and it's gonna get more
encompasses everything, Thunderbolt you know,
Apple fanboys have a fricking party but no.
Okay let's move over here a bit,
Wi-Fi and there are many different flavors
of Wi-Fi depending upon how old or how expensive
or inexpensive the device is, coming up is.
If you're getting the speed coming into the house
how are you gonna distribute it to the various
wireless centric devices in the home?
The newest standard right now we're at ac,
the newest standard coming up is ax.
And again it's that concept of fiber speed
but Over the Air so you can get 5G into the house
or perhaps 5G directly into the device
or perhaps using Wi-Fi or one of the USB variants.
So it's been made, it's been broadcasted disseminated,
it's been gotten into the house
and it's getting around the house now what's gonna happen?
How will it be accessed, stored, and selected?
To some extend there isn't a lot of green in here
which means that for the most part,
this is kind of gonna stay the same,
it will improve and get better but it's gonna be
done the same way your still gonna have Over the Air,
OTA Tuners, you're still gonna have for awhile
traditional set-top boxes, whether it's a Freeview
which is Over the Air, a Freeview or a cable box
or a satellite box or some sort of terminal.
That's as old as the hills, I don't know if there's
anybody here from France, remember Minitel?
That was a set-top box, better left forgotten
but okay, physical media still lives.
The Blu-ray ultra-HD Blu-ray format,
gee you don't get those hourglasses,
you don't have somebody in the house saying
what's this buffering thing?
If you want the best reproduction, the fastest throughput
for awhile ultra-HD Blu-ray is not going away
and is still gonna remain a little smaller
but very viable.
You're still gonna have more of the streaming devices
and smart TV apps, I've brought 'em over,
I didn't bring 'em over to the hall today
but in my suitcase just to test 'em out to see if they
work outside of the US there are Roku devices.
I brought one of those, I took it to Hong Kong in October
and I'm sitting there watching through a VPN watching
Dir-- now here's a good way to look at this.
I'm in a hotel in Hong Kong, they've got Wi-Fi,
I've connected it to a VPN on my phone,
I have a Roku which is a little streaming device that is
available to some extent in Europe, the new Sky TV Now
is actually a Roku I plugged that in.
Connected it to the VPN accessed DIRECTV NOW
and even though you're not supposed to don't tell them,
I'm sitting in a hotel room in Hong Kong watching
KNBC in Los Angeles, that is an example
of how this is gonna work with IP streaming.
Or smart TV apps, the ability of the TV
to do away with the need for these apps that you get
from a phone or a tablet by having the apps built in
to the set, or another trend in the US and Canada world.
There is a mashup of DVR and Over the Air there's a
device called Tablo, the Tablo people are the ones
the nice Canadian folks and they're responsible
for my color bar socks, so Tablo is an IP connected device
it's got over the air tuners, you connect a hard drive
and it records things vocally but then it's
distributed over the internet.
And you need to get right now, a Roku or an Apple TV.
However they just done a deal with Samsung so the app
that is required is built into the TV set.
So there's, you gotta see what people want,
I keep saying that but it's really important,
what they want and then you've gotta figure out
how to get it there.
Subscription VoD, Video on Demand, versus all the time VoD.
One the other or more likely both.
VoD, Video on Demand it's not always a service,
it's I want to watch a movie,
and I subscribe to a service and I get the movie.
Video games, not gonna go away they may also change
increasingly more from the traditional you know,
we have set-top boxes and terminals.
From the traditional Xbox and PlayStation and to a lesser
degree for this type of quality Nintendo,
but that's gonna remain.
Phones and tablets of course, and up and coming Cloud DVR
and storage, so if you're familiar with Tivo
or anything in your set-top box,
whether it's a Sky box or a Freeview box, or Canal+
because I just like to say Canal+ that any one of those
regional boxes that has a DVR in it but that's gonna
be done away by catch up recording
or instead of having to capture
and record it on a hard drive, notice that none of those
boxes have solid state drives?
In a box in the rack, in the home would it be
a damn sight easier if you press a button
and have it recorded in the cloud?
So this DIRECTV NOW service that I subscribe to
has PlayStation View, has Swing which are some of the
major ones that do that in the US.
They have DVR which says I know I'm not going to be home
tomorrow night, but I want to watch whatever program,
I could call my wife you know 9 hours behind
get her up out of bed and say you know honey,
can you please record this for me?
Or I can say don't bother through an app
on my phone I can access you know a VPN when we're
out of the country I can access their service
and say record it for me in the cloud,
I'll be home next week and I wanna watch it, bingo!
So that's gonna be an increasingly important way
that content is gonna be accessed.
How will it be accessed and stored, so here it is.
Sort of a pictorialized, Android TV many many
Sony and other types of brands are building
the Android TV platform excuse me, into the device.
Chromecast, now Chromecast and Android are both
part of the Google ap- blah, Google Alphabet world
but Chromecast you know and I have that in my room too.
For $30 I can get a Chromecast, for $65 I can get
a 4k Chromecast that is one of the very few ways
to get Dolby Vision other than the Apple TV
which is $179 the Apple TV, you know, I can do with
a Chromecast or it can be built into the set
with a Smart TV or you know the various
manufacturers have different logos for it.
Xbox One you can use that as a capture and playback device.
A Blu-ray player, here's a screen from a Blu-ray player
Blu-ray players are not just to play back physical media.
They all have some access that, here are some of these
services and again this is US, Amazon, YouTube,
iHeartRadio, Major League Baseball, Netflix,
Vudu, Hulu Plus, Sony PlayStation View,
or the PlayStation itself has a variety
and it clearly varies depending upon
where your located, access to different services.
This is not gonna change, this will continue
in this form well into 2020 and beyond.
Ah but finally when you get to the end of the line
you know unless we have neutral implants, now if Rich Green
were here, he'd say in the year 2020 god willing
I should only live that long, it's 2035
you know at which point I'll only be about 86,
you'll have neutral implants.
I can't wait that long, so in the mean time you still need
to have a display to watch this stuff on.
Flat panels continue, they're gonna be LCD or QLED.
They're gonna be OLED but you're also going to increasingly
particularly in 2020 and beyond Emissive QD,
QD stands for Quantum Dots.
Right now if you go over as an example to
the Samsung display which is sort of in another hall
because it wouldn't be ISE if wherever you had
to go wouldn't be in another bleeping hall,
so you've gotta go out behind where the Harman booth is
out the door in another door and you'll see
a big Samsung display which I really commend you all to see.
QD stands for Quantum Dot it is a way of putting
a material typically liquid that goes either
in a film or on the LEDs that illuminate the screen
to very very carefully finely tune the color output
so you get amazingly vivid and accurate color.
But it's still an LED with some goop on top of it.
Emissive Quantum Dot in 2020 will be the competition
for OLED because OLED is self emissive,
if you go to the next step of LEDs the Quantum Dot material
will be inside and it will be an emissive thing.
An emissive LCD, you're going to have laser front
and short-throw projection, you know you can look right
across the aisle right here, that is definitely
gonna continue, direct LED modules go,
over there and look at the Sony CLEDIS!
Which sounds like some disease but it's really
the crystal LED system and it's what called
a micro-LED, micro-modules, micro-panels.
Extremely and maybe by 2025 there will be nano-LEDs
really really really really teeny tiny LEDs
now if you walk around the floor particularly
because of the orientation of ISE for public displays
you'll see everybody mentioned the pitch,
how tightly together are the LEDs in these modules.
So instead of having panels you've got little modules.
Clearly the closer you get the tighter it has to be,
or it won't look good,
now if you're looking across at Wembley and there's a runner
a scoreboard runner, you don't care how big the pitch is
'cause you're at the other end of the stadium!
But when your in the home, and your that close,
or your this close yeah you want it to be a tight pitch.
So micro-LED, micro-LED panels, go see the CLEDIS
and go around the corner to see what they call
The Wall I understand they're gonna get Pink Floyd
to be their spokesman, no okay I'm sorry
there's one gentleman here whose at least
old enough to remember Pink Floyd and The Wall.
So what will video not necessarily be?
Holographic presentation,
maybe but like why okay?
I mean for AR maybe but I'm not gonna sit here
and you know be Star Trek, do da do la do la do.
There's the screen no it just it is very
very unlikely you're laughing back there Walt.
Vulcan Mind-Meld or telepathic conveyance
now 35 years from now I may be hopefully still
alive, get an implant and that will put the video
in my brain don't promise that to your clients
it's not going to happen any time soon.
Now, I say that fully aware that there are cochlear implants
which are very very helpful for people who don't
have hearing where they actually do implant something
in your brain and it connects to your hearing system
so that you can hear, but your not gonna connect
something to your eyes any time soon.
So that's it, there is much to see much to think about
but I hope that this has sort of whet your appetite
a bit, I'll be around you can't miss me.
I'm going a course about this if you haven't
registered called the new technology update tomorrow
at 2 pm, 14:00 hours.
You know register and you'll hear way more about this
than you ever would want to know.
But thank you for attending I hope you've learned something
enjoy the rest of the show and safe travels.
(applause)
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét